A full-stack quantitative analysis of NVIDIA’s value and risk, combining GARCH(1,1) volatility modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, FCFF/DCF valuation, financial ratios, and an interactive dashboard. It delivers a clear view of the company’s intrinsic worth and investment outlook, with the complete analysis available in the PDF report.
NVIDIA is growing at an extraordinary pace. To invest responsibly, price alone isn’t enough:
we must quantify risk over the coming months and contrast that profile with the
company’s intrinsic value. This case answers two critical questions:
Price range? P5–P95 and maximum expected loss (VaR 95%).
Does value hold? Whether DCF supports the current price under realistic WACC and g.
Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 paths): price distribution → P5/P50/P95 and VaR 95%.
FCFF/DCF valuation: auditable assumptions with sensitivity to WACC ±100 bps and g ±50 bps.
KPIs & BI: executive dashboard to navigate metrics and visual evidence.
3) Findings
P5–P95 concentrates ~90% of scenarios; skew consistent with recent volatility. This band gives a defensible range for board presentations.
Risk:VaR 95% (relative) = 29.55% — meaning in the worst 5% of scenarios, the maximum drawdown stays within this bound. Aligned with historical drawdown patterns.
Value:DCF supports the current price under base-case WACC and g. Sensitivity analysis (±100 bps WACC, ±50 bps g) shows the valuation band remains constructive across scenarios.
Action: combine quantitative risk signals (VaR for max position sizing) with fundamental signals (DCF vs. market price) for entry timing and exposure calibration.
4) Next Steps
Size the position using VaR 95% as a guardrail.
Manage expectations with the P5–P95 band (rebalancing).
Contrast market price vs. DCF value band before increasing or reducing exposure.
* Latest run figures. Full assumptions, robustness checks, and sensitivities in the
Executive Report (PDF).